Logo PTI
Polish Information Processing Society
Logo FedCSIS

Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems, Volume 15

Proceedings of the 2018 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems

Prospective Financial Assessment Based on Real Options in Small and Medium-Sized Company

, , ,

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15439/2018F161

Citation: Proceedings of the 2018 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems, M. Ganzha, L. Maciaszek, M. Paprzycki (eds). ACSIS, Vol. 15, pages 789793 ()

Full text

Abstract. The article presents a prototype of an intelligent business forecasting system based on real option approach to prospective financial assessment of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SME). The described approach constitutes a continuation of development of the intelligent cockpit for managers (InKoM project), the main objective of which was to facilitate financial analysis and evaluation of economic status of a company. The current project is related to the design of smart evaluation of critical financial situations of SME using real options, domain ontology, and AI methods. The content of the knowledge is focused on essential financial concepts and relationships connected with risk assessment, taking into consideration internal and external economic and financial information. A case study based on the real option has been carried out on financial data extracted from financial information system.


  1. M. Benaroch, Y. Lichtenstein and K. Robinson, Karl. 2006. "Real Options in Information Technology Risk Management: An Empirical Validation of Risk-Option Relationships," MIS Quarterly, 2006, vol. 30 (40), pp. 827-864
  2. G. Favato and R. Vecchiato, "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, 2017, vol. 124(C), pp. 135-149, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.016
  3. J. Korczak, H. Dudycz, B. Nita, P. Oleksyk and A. Kaźmierczak, “Attempt to extend knowledge of Decision Support Systems for small and medium-sized enterprises”, in: Proc. of the 2016 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems, M. Ganzha, L. Maciaszek, M. Paprzycki, Eds., Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems, vol. 8, 2016, pp. 1263-1271, http://dx.doi.org/10.15439/2016F181
  4. B. Nita, „Metody wyceny i kształtowania wartości przedsiębiorstwa” [Methods of Corporate Valuation and Value-Based Management], PWE, Warszawa 2007.
  5. R. A Brealey and S. C. Myers, Principles of Corporate Finance, Mc-Graw Hill, 2003.
  6. A. S. Koyuncugil and N. Ozgulbas (Eds.), Surveillance Technologies and Early Warning Systems: Data Mining Applications for Risk Detection, IGI Global, 2009
  7. T. Adelaja, Capital Budgeting: Capital Investment Decision Paperback, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2016
  8. U. Götze, D. Northcott and P. Schuster, Investment Appraisal: Methods and Models, Springer, 2015
  9. A. Damodaran, “The Promise of Real Option”, in: J. M. Stern, D. H. Chew, Eds., The Revolution in Corporate Finance, Blackwell Publishing, 2003.
  10. S. C. Myers, “Determinants of Capital Borrowing”, Journal of Financial Economics, 1977, vol. 5., pp. 147-175
  11. A. Dixit and R.S. Pindyck, Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press. Princeton, New Jersey 1994
  12. A. Jahanshahi, K. Nawaser, N. Eizi and M. Etemadi, “The Role of Real Options Thinking in Achieving Sustainable Competitive Advantage for SMEs”, Global Business & Organizational Excellence, November 2015, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 35-44
  13. L. Trigeorgis, Real Options. Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, The MIT Press, Cambridge 1998
  14. B. Power and G. Reid, “Organisational change and performance in long-lived small firms: a real options approach”, European Journal Of Finance, September 2013, vol. 19, no. 7/8, pp. 791-809
  15. T. R. Gruber, Toward Principles for the Design of Ontologies Used for Knowledge Sharing, Technical Report KSL, Knowledge Systems Laboratory, Stanford University, 1993, http://tomgruber.org/writing/onto-design.pdf