Citation: Proceedings of the 2020 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems, M. Ganzha, L. Maciaszek, M. Paprzycki (eds). ACSIS, Vol. 21, pages 7–10 (2020)
Abstract. The rapid growth and distribution of IT systems increases their complexity and aggravates operation and maintenance. To sustain control over large sets of hosts and the connecting networks, monitoring solutions are employed and constantly enhanced. They collect diverse key performance indicators (KPIs) (e.g. CPU utilization, allocated memory, etc.) and provide detailed information about the system state. Storing such metrics over a period of time naturally raises the motivation of predicting future KPI progress based on past observations. This allows different ahead of time optimizations like anomaly detection or predictive maintenance. Predicting the future progress of KPIs can be defined as a time series forecasting problem. Although, a variety of time series forecasting methods exist, forecasting the progress of IT system KPIs is very hard. First, KPI types like CPU utilization or allocated memory are very different and hard to be modelled by the same model. Second, system components are interconnected and constantly changing due to soft- or firmware updates and hardware modernization. Thus a frequent model retraining or fine-tuning must be expected. Therefore, we propose a lightweight solution for KPI series prediction based on historic observations. It consists of a weighted heterogeneous ensemble method composed of two models - a neural network and a mean predictor. As ensemble method a weighted summation is used, whereby a heuristic is employed to set the weights. The lightweight nature allows to train models individually on each KPI series and makes model retraining feasible when system changes occur. The modelling approach is evaluated on the available FedCSIS 2020 challenge dataset and achieves an overall R^2 score of 0.10 on the preliminary 10\% test data and 0.15 on the complete test data. We publish our code on the following github repository: https://github.com/citlab/fed\_challenge
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