Logo PTI
Polish Information Processing Society
Logo FedCSIS

Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems, Volume 8

Proceedings of the 2016 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems

Estimation of Temporal Uncertainty Structure of Greenhouse Gas Inventories for Selected EU Countries

,

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15439/2016F318

Citation: Proceedings of the 2016 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems, M. Ganzha, L. Maciaszek, M. Paprzycki (eds). ACSIS, Vol. 8, pages 459–465 ()

Full text

Abstract. The paper addresses the problem of uncertainty in the GHG emission inventories, by proposing an alternative method for assessing uncertainty and its evolution over time. To estimate the inventory accuracy, the revisions published in consecutive years are used. These revisions are considered nonstationary time series. We describe evolution by time-dependent models, used to analyze data from the National Inventory Reports published annually up to 2015, for selected EU countries. We present a parametric model and a procedure for estimating parameters, along with the results obtained.

References

  1. “Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Inventories,” IPCC, 2000, available at http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/
  2. “IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”, IPCC, 2006, available at http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/
  3. Z. Nahorski and W. Jȩda, “Processing national CO2 inventory emission data and their total uncertainty estimates,” Water, Air, and Soil Pollution: Focus, vol. 7, pp. 513–527, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11267-006-9114-6.
  4. G. Marland, K. Hamal and M. Jonas, “How uncertain are estimates of CO2 emissions?” J. Industrial Ecology, vol. 13, 2009, pp. 4–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00108.x
  5. K. Hamal, “Reporting GHG emissions: Change in uncertainty and its relevance for detection of emission changes,” Interim Report IR-10-003, IIASA, Laxenburg, 2010.
  6. Z. Nahorski and J. Jarnicka, “Modeling uncertainty structure of greenhouse gases inventories”, Report RB/11/2010, SRI PAS, Warsaw, 2010, unpublished.
  7. J. Jarnicka and Z. Nahorski, “A method for estimating time evolution of precision and accuracy of greenhouse gases inventories from revised reports,” in Proc. 4th Intl Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions, Kraków, Poland, 2015, pp. 97–102, available at http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/unws2015/index.php?go=publications
  8. P. Żebrowski, M. Jonas, E. Rovenskaya, “Assessing the improvement of greenhouse gases inventories: can we capture diagnostic learning?” in Proc. 4th Intl Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions, Kraków, Poland, 2015, pp. 90–96, available at: http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/unws2015/index.php?go=publications
  9. “National Inventory Report 2003-2016 under UNFCCC Treaty”, available at: http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/8812.php.