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Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems, Volume 21

Proceedings of the 2020 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems

A simple crime hotspot forecasting algorithm

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15439/2020F5

Citation: Proceedings of the 2020 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems, M. Ganzha, L. Maciaszek, M. Paprzycki (eds). ACSIS, Vol. 21, pages 2326 ()

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Abstract. Crime hotspot forecasting is an important part of crime prevention and reducing the delay between a 911 call and the physical intervention. Current developments in the field focus on enriching the historical data and sophisticated point process analysis methods with a fixed grid. In the paper we present a simple spatio-temporal point process allowing one to perform exhaustive (literal) grid searches. We then show that this approach can compete with more complex methods, as evidenced by the results on data collected by the Portland Bureau of Police. Finally, we discuss the advantages and potential implications of the new method.


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